Bukavu Dawa vs Etoile de Kivu — Ligue 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
Bukavu Dawa34%
Etoile de Kivu35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 29 home / 46 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bukavu Dawa ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches
Etoile de Kivu away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Etoile de Kivu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.99
Etoile de Kivu attack 0.80 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Etoile de Kivu at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Etoile de Kivu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Vita Club
Maniema Union
TP Mazembe
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Sanga Balende
Motema Pembe
Blessing
Rangers
Don Bosco
JSK
Dauphins Noirs
Renaissance
Simba
Groupe Bazano
RCK
Lubumbashi SportIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bukavu Dawa host Etoile de Kivu on Monday, 17 March 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Ligue 1 2019/2020 season.
Bukavu Dawa face Etoile de Kivu (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 returns with Bukavu Dawa hosting Etoile de Kivu. Match starts March 17, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Bukavu Dawa host Etoile de Kivu at Stade Tata Raphaël.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.