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Buhimba Saints vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Buhimba Saints
Buhimba Saints
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
E. Agondeze 70'
M. Kanyike 25'
A. Kacancu 23'
11/21/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Buhimba Saints35%
×Draw29%
Mbarara City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buhimba Saints
1.10
Mbarara City
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Buhimba Saints
0.60
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Buhimba Saints
1.53
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Buhimba Saints+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buhimba Saints ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Buhimba Saints or draw
64%
Buhimba Saints or Mbarara City
71%
Draw or Mbarara City
65%

Winning margin

Buhimba Saints wins by 2+
14%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Buhimba Saints 1+ goals
67%
Buhimba Saints 2+ goals
30%
Buhimba Saints 3+ goals
10%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
68%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
31%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)
49%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buhimba Saints at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buhimba Saints attack 0.60 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Buhimba Saints defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Buhimba Saints scores more
35%
level
29%
Mbarara City scores more
36%

Mbarara City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mbarara City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Kacancu
25'
M. Kanyike
70'
E. Agondeze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buhimba Saints vs Mbarara City

Mbarara City beat Buhimba Saints 2-1 in Premier League on November 21, 2025.

Goals: A. Kacancu (23'), M. Kanyike (25'), E. Agondeze (70').

The match was played at The Royals Park.