Buhimba Saints 0–2 KCCA: Result & Stats

Buhimba Saints

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

KCCA

3/2/2026

Premier League · Round 18The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Buhimba Saints21%

×Draw28%

KCCA51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buhimba SaintsExpected goals in this matchKCCA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.36

Buhimba Saints

0.77

KCCA

1.36

KCCA creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

0.60

creates per match

1.20

1.53

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Buhimba Saints

0.60

KCCA

1.20

allows per match

Buhimba Saints

1.53

KCCA

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buhimba Saints ↓

KCCA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Buhimba Saints or draw

49%

Buhimba Saints or KCCA

72%

Draw or KCCA

79%

Winning margin

Buhimba Saints wins by 2+

6%

KCCA wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Buhimba Saints 1+ goals

54%

Buhimba Saints 2+ goals

18%

Buhimba Saints 3+ goals

4%

KCCA 1+ goals

74%

KCCA 2+ goals

39%

KCCA 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)

29%

KCCA (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buhimba Saints at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buhimba Saints attack 0.60 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

KCCA attack 1.20 + Buhimba Saints defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Buhimba Saints scores more

21%

level

28%

KCCA scores more

51%

KCCA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff