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Buhimba Saints vs Calvary — Premier League 2019

Buhimba Saints
Buhimba Saints
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Calvary
Calvary
10/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Buhimba Saints42%
×Draw29%
Calvary28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buhimba Saints
1.20
Calvary
0.93

Buhimba Saints creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Buhimba Saints
0.60
Calvary
0.33

allows per match

Buhimba Saints
1.53
Calvary
1.80

finishing

Buhimba Saints+0.00on par
Calvary+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buhimba Saints ↓

Calvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Buhimba Saints or draw
72%
Buhimba Saints or Calvary
71%
Draw or Calvary
58%

Winning margin

Buhimba Saints wins by 2+
18%
Calvary wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Buhimba Saints 1+ goals
70%
Buhimba Saints 2+ goals
34%
Buhimba Saints 3+ goals
12%
Calvary 1+ goals
61%
Calvary 2+ goals
24%
Calvary 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)
60%
Calvary (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buhimba Saints at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Calvary away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buhimba Saints attack 0.60 + Calvary defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Calvary attack 0.33 + Buhimba Saints defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Buhimba Saints scores more
42%
level
29%
Calvary scores more
28%

Buhimba Saints at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Buhimba Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Buhimba Saints 2–0 Calvary

Buhimba Saints beat Calvary 2-0 in Premier League on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at The Royals Park.