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Bugesera vs Heroes — National Soccer League 2019

Bugesera
Bugesera
FT
2 – 0
Heroes
Heroes
10/5/2019National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 1Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bugesera47%
×Draw28%
Heroes25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bugesera
1.32
Heroes
0.89

Bugesera creates 48% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bugesera
1.20
Heroes
0.73

allows per match

Bugesera
1.05
Heroes
1.45

finishing

Bugesera+0.00on par
Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bugesera ↓

Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bugesera or draw
75%
Bugesera or Heroes
72%
Draw or Heroes
53%

Winning margin

Bugesera wins by 2+
22%
Heroes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bugesera 1+ goals
73%
Bugesera 2+ goals
38%
Bugesera 3+ goals
15%
Heroes 1+ goals
59%
Heroes 2+ goals
22%
Heroes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bugesera (draw refunded)
65%
Heroes (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bugesera at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

Heroes away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bugesera attack 1.20 + Heroes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Heroes attack 0.73 + Bugesera defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bugesera scores more
47%
level
28%
Heroes scores more
25%

Bugesera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bugesera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bugesera vs Heroes

Bugesera beat Heroes 2-0 in National Soccer League on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Bugesera Stadium in Nyamata.