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Bugesera vs Etincelles — National Soccer League 2019

Bugesera
Bugesera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Etincelles
Etincelles
4/4/2026National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Bugesera46%
×Draw27%
Etincelles27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bugesera
1.38
Etincelles
1.00

Bugesera creates 38% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

creates per match

Bugesera
1.20
Etincelles
0.95

allows per match

Bugesera
1.05
Etincelles
1.55

finishing

Bugesera+0.00on par
Etincelles+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bugesera ↓

Etincelles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bugesera or draw
73%
Bugesera or Etincelles
73%
Draw or Etincelles
54%

Winning margin

Bugesera wins by 2+
22%
Etincelles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bugesera 1+ goals
75%
Bugesera 2+ goals
40%
Bugesera 3+ goals
16%
Etincelles 1+ goals
63%
Etincelles 2+ goals
26%
Etincelles 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bugesera (draw refunded)
63%
Etincelles (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bugesera at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

Etincelles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bugesera attack 1.20 + Etincelles defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Etincelles attack 0.95 + Bugesera defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bugesera scores more
46%
level
27%
Etincelles scores more
27%

Bugesera at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bugesera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Bugesera 3–0 Etincelles

Bugesera beat Etincelles 3-0 in National Soccer League on April 4, 2026.