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Bugesera vs APR — National Soccer League 2019

Bugesera
Bugesera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
APR
APR
4/5/2025National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 23Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Bugesera27%
×Draw29%
APR44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bugesera
0.93
APR
1.27

APR creates 37% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 94 away

creates per match

Bugesera
1.20
APR
1.49

allows per match

Bugesera
1.05
APR
0.66

finishing

Bugesera+0.00on par
APR+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bugesera ↓

APR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bugesera or draw
56%
Bugesera or APR
71%
Draw or APR
73%

Winning margin

Bugesera wins by 2+
9%
APR wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bugesera 1+ goals
61%
Bugesera 2+ goals
24%
Bugesera 3+ goals
7%
APR 1+ goals
72%
APR 2+ goals
36%
APR 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bugesera (draw refunded)
38%
APR (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bugesera at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 96 matches

APR away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.66 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bugesera attack 1.20 + APR defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.93

APR attack 1.49 + Bugesera defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bugesera scores more
27%
level
29%
APR scores more
44%

APR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Bugesera 0–1 APR

APR beat Bugesera 1-0 in National Soccer League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Bugesera Stadium in Nyamata.