Buffles 0–2 UPI-ONM: Result & Stats

Buffles

FT

0 – 2

UPI-ONM

5/8/2019

Championnat National · Round 29Stade Municipal de Parakou (Parakou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Buffles55%

×Draw27%

UPI-ONM17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BufflesExpected goals in this matchUPI-ONM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.66

Buffles

1.41

UPI-ONM

0.66

Buffles creates 114% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 87 away

1.21

creates per match

0.74

0.58

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Buffles

1.21

UPI-ONM

0.74

allows per match

Buffles

0.58

UPI-ONM

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par

UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

UPI-ONM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Buffles or draw

83%

Buffles or UPI-ONM

73%

Draw or UPI-ONM

45%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+

28%

UPI-ONM wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals

76%

Buffles 2+ goals

41%

Buffles 3+ goals

17%

UPI-ONM 1+ goals

48%

UPI-ONM 2+ goals

14%

UPI-ONM 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)

76%

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.58 · 117 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.60 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.21 + UPI-ONM defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

UPI-ONM attack 0.74 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Buffles scores more

55%

level

27%

UPI-ONM scores more

17%

Buffles at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff