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Buffles vs Tanéka — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
1 – 0
Tanéka
Tanéka
2/27/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 9Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Buffles53%
×Draw32%
Tanéka15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.15
Tanéka
0.48

Buffles creates 140% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 13 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.21
Tanéka
0.38

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
Tanéka
1.08

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
Tanéka+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

Tanéka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
85%
Buffles or Tanéka
68%
Draw or Tanéka
47%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
23%
Tanéka wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
68%
Buffles 2+ goals
32%
Buffles 3+ goals
11%
Tanéka 1+ goals
38%
Tanéka 2+ goals
8%
Tanéka 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
77%
Tanéka (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.58 · 117 matches

Tanéka away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.21 + Tanéka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tanéka attack 0.38 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Buffles scores more
53%
level
32%
Tanéka scores more
15%

Buffles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Buffles 1–0 Tanéka

Buffles beat Tanéka 1-0 in Championnat National on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.