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Buffles vs JAC — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
0 – 1
JAC
JAC
3/2/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 18Stade Municipal de Parakou (Parakou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Buffles53%
×Draw30%
JAC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.27
JAC
0.59

Buffles creates 115% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 46 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.21
JAC
0.61

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
JAC
1.33

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

JAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
83%
Buffles or JAC
70%
Draw or JAC
47%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
25%
JAC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
72%
Buffles 2+ goals
36%
Buffles 3+ goals
14%
JAC 1+ goals
45%
JAC 2+ goals
12%
JAC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
75%
JAC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.58 · 117 matches

JAC away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.21 + JAC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

JAC attack 0.61 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Buffles scores more
53%
level
30%
JAC scores more
17%

Buffles at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buffles 0 – 1 JAC

JAC beat Buffles 1-0 in Championnat National on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou (Parakou).