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Buffles vs Hodio — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hodio
Hodio
4/21/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 7Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Buffles45%
×Draw32%
Hodio23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.11
Hodio
0.71

Buffles creates 56% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.24
Hodio
0.85

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
Hodio
0.98

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
Hodio+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

Hodio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
77%
Buffles or Hodio
68%
Draw or Hodio
55%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
19%
Hodio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
67%
Buffles 2+ goals
30%
Buffles 3+ goals
10%
Hodio 1+ goals
51%
Hodio 2+ goals
16%
Hodio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
66%
Hodio (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 112 matches

Hodio away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.24 + Hodio defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Hodio attack 0.85 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Buffles scores more
45%
level
32%
Hodio scores more
23%

Buffles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buffles 0 – 0 Hodio

Buffles and Hodio drew 0-0 in Championnat National on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.