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Buffles vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
11/12/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 6Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Buffles47%
×Draw30%
Béké Bembèrèkè22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.19
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.72

Buffles creates 65% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.24
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.87

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.13

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
78%
Buffles or Béké Bembèrèkè
70%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
53%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
21%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
70%
Buffles 2+ goals
33%
Buffles 3+ goals
12%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
51%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
16%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
68%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 112 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.24 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.87 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Buffles scores more
47%
level
30%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
22%

Buffles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Buffles 2–1 Béké Bembèrèkè

Buffles beat Béké Bembèrèkè 2-1 in Championnat National on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou in Parakou.