Buffles 0–1 Bani Gansè: Result & Stats

Buffles

FT

0 – 1

Bani Gansè

5/4/2025

Championnat National · Group A - 29Stade Municipal de Parakou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Buffles48%

×Draw31%

Bani Gansè21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BufflesExpected goals in this matchBani Gansè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.66

Buffles

1.16

Bani Gansè

0.66

Buffles creates 76% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 74 away

1.24

creates per match

0.74

0.58

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Buffles

1.24

Bani Gansè

0.74

allows per match

Buffles

0.58

Bani Gansè

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par

Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

Bani Gansè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Buffles or draw

79%

Buffles or Bani Gansè

69%

Draw or Bani Gansè

52%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+

21%

Bani Gansè wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals

69%

Buffles 2+ goals

32%

Buffles 3+ goals

11%

Bani Gansè 1+ goals

48%

Bani Gansè 2+ goals

14%

Bani Gansè 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)

70%

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 112 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.24 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Buffles scores more

48%

level

31%

Bani Gansè scores more

21%

Buffles at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff