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Buffles vs ASOS — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
1 – 0
ASOS
ASOS
12/9/2018Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 6Stade Municipal de Parakou (Parakou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Buffles49%
×Draw29%
ASOS21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.27
ASOS
0.73

Buffles creates 74% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 41 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.21
ASOS
0.88

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
ASOS
1.34

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
ASOS+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

ASOS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
79%
Buffles or ASOS
71%
Draw or ASOS
51%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
23%
ASOS wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
72%
Buffles 2+ goals
36%
Buffles 3+ goals
14%
ASOS 1+ goals
52%
ASOS 2+ goals
17%
ASOS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
70%
ASOS (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.58 · 117 matches

ASOS away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.34 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.21 + ASOS defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

ASOS attack 0.88 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Buffles scores more
49%
level
29%
ASOS scores more
21%

Buffles at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buffles 1 – 0 ASOS

Buffles beat ASOS 1-0 in Championnat National on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Parakou (Parakou).