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Buffles vs AS Sobemap — Championnat National 2019

Buffles
Buffles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
1/13/2026Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Buffles43%
×Draw32%
AS Sobemap25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buffles
1.10
AS Sobemap
0.76

Buffles creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 106 away

creates per match

Buffles
1.24
AS Sobemap
0.94

allows per match

Buffles
0.58
AS Sobemap
0.97

finishing

Buffles+0.00on par
AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buffles ↓

AS Sobemap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Buffles or draw
75%
Buffles or AS Sobemap
68%
Draw or AS Sobemap
57%

Winning margin

Buffles wins by 2+
18%
AS Sobemap wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Buffles 1+ goals
67%
Buffles 2+ goals
30%
Buffles 3+ goals
10%
AS Sobemap 1+ goals
53%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
18%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Buffles (draw refunded)
63%
AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buffles at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 112 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.97 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buffles attack 1.24 + AS Sobemap defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.10

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Buffles defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Buffles scores more
43%
level
32%
AS Sobemap scores more
25%

Buffles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buffles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buffles vs AS Sobemap

AS Sobemap beat Buffles 1-0 in Championnat National on January 13, 2026.