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Budućnost Popovac vs Vlasina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
0 – 0
Vlasina
Vlasina
3/3/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 16Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Budućnost Popovac50%
×Draw23%
Vlasina26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.78
Vlasina
1.23

Budućnost Popovac creates 45% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 101 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Vlasina
1.40

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Vlasina
1.72

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Vlasina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
74%
Budućnost Popovac or Vlasina
77%
Draw or Vlasina
50%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
28%
Vlasina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
83%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
53%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
26%
Vlasina 1+ goals
71%
Vlasina 2+ goals
35%
Vlasina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
65%
Vlasina (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
50%
level
23%
Vlasina scores more
26%

Budućnost Popovac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 0–0 Vlasina

Budućnost Popovac and Vlasina drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.