Budućnost Popovac 1–0 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Budućnost Popovac

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Toplicanin Prokuplje

11/6/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Budućnost Popovac57%

×Draw22%

Toplicanin Prokuplje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PopovacExpected goals in this matchToplicanin Prokuplje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.08

Budućnost Popovac

1.92

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.08

Budućnost Popovac creates 78% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 42 away

1.84

creates per match

1.10

1.07

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac

1.84

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.10

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac

1.07

Toplicanin Prokuplje

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw

79%

Budućnost Popovac or Toplicanin Prokuplje

78%

Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje

43%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

33%

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

85%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

57%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

30%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

66%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

29%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

73%

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more

57%

level

22%

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

21%

Budućnost Popovac at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff