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Budućnost Popovac vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
3 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
10/17/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Budućnost Popovac53%
×Draw24%
Timočanin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.75
Timočanin
1.06

Budućnost Popovac creates 65% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 73 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
77%
Budućnost Popovac or Timočanin
76%
Draw or Timočanin
47%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
30%
Timočanin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
83%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
52%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
25%
Timočanin 1+ goals
65%
Timočanin 2+ goals
29%
Timočanin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
70%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
53%
level
24%
Timočanin scores more
23%

Budućnost Popovac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 3–1 Timočanin

Budućnost Popovac beat Timočanin 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.