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Budućnost Popovac vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
5/4/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Budućnost Popovac48%
×Draw24%
Radnički Svilajnac28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.69
Radnički Svilajnac
1.22

Budućnost Popovac creates 39% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 78 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
72%
Budućnost Popovac or Radnički Svilajnac
76%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
52%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
26%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
82%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
50%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
24%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
70%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
34%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
64%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
48%
level
24%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
28%

Budućnost Popovac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Popovac vs Radnički Svilajnac

Budućnost Popovac beat Radnički Svilajnac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.