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Budućnost Popovac vs Morava Ćuprija — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
0 – 2
Morava Ćuprija
Morava Ćuprija
4/19/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Budućnost Popovac48%
×Draw24%
Morava Ćuprija29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.73
Morava Ćuprija
1.29

Budućnost Popovac creates 34% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Morava Ćuprija
1.50

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Morava Ćuprija
1.63

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Morava Ćuprija+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Morava Ćuprija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
71%
Budućnost Popovac or Morava Ćuprija
76%
Draw or Morava Ćuprija
52%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
26%
Morava Ćuprija wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
82%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
52%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
25%
Morava Ćuprija 1+ goals
72%
Morava Ćuprija 2+ goals
37%
Morava Ćuprija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
62%
Morava Ćuprija (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Morava Ćuprija away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Morava Ćuprija defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Morava Ćuprija attack 1.50 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
48%
level
24%
Morava Ćuprija scores more
29%

Budućnost Popovac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 0–2 Morava Ćuprija

Morava Ćuprija beat Budućnost Popovac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.