Budućnost Popovac 3–0 Meševo: Result & Stats

Budućnost Popovac

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Meševo

5/26/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 29Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Budućnost Popovac55%

×Draw23%

Meševo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PopovacExpected goals in this matchMeševo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

Budućnost Popovac

1.83

Meševo

1.06

Budućnost Popovac creates 73% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

1.84

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac

1.84

Meševo

1.04

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac

1.07

Meševo

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Meševo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw

78%

Budućnost Popovac or Meševo

77%

Draw or Meševo

45%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

31%

Meševo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

84%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

54%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

28%

Meševo 1+ goals

65%

Meševo 2+ goals

29%

Meševo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

72%

Meševo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Meševo attack 1.04 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more

55%

level

23%

Meševo scores more

22%

Budućnost Popovac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff