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Budućnost Popovac vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
CANC
14:30
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
4/17/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Budućnost Popovac63%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Vranje15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.85
Dinamo Vranje
0.75

Budućnost Popovac creates 147% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 7 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Dinamo Vranje
0.43

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Dinamo Vranje
1.86

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
85%
Budućnost Popovac or Dinamo Vranje
78%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
37%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
38%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
84%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
55%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
28%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
53%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
17%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
81%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
63%
level
22%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
15%

Budućnost Popovac at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Budućnost Popovac host Dinamo Vranje

April 17, 2022: Budućnost Popovac take on Dinamo Vranje in Srpska Liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Budućnost Popovac host Dinamo Vranje at Stadion Begavica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.