Buducnost Podgorica 1–1 Sutjeska: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sutjeska

3/4/2023

First League · Round 23Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica43%

×Draw26%

Sutjeska31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchSutjeska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Buducnost Podgorica

1.44

Sutjeska

1.19

Buducnost Podgorica creates 21% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 123 away

1.95

creates per match

1.44

0.93

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Sutjeska

1.44

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.93

Sutjeska

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Sutjeska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

69%

Buducnost Podgorica or Sutjeska

74%

Draw or Sutjeska

57%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

21%

Sutjeska wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

76%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

42%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

18%

Sutjeska 1+ goals

70%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

33%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

58%

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Sutjeska defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sutjeska attack 1.44 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

43%

level

26%

Sutjeska scores more

31%

Buducnost Podgorica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff