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Buducnost Podgorica vs Sutjeska — Cup 2020

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgoricaadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
4/20/2022CupCup · Semi-finalsStadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica73%
×Draw18%
Sutjeska8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
2.05
Sutjeska
0.52

Buducnost Podgorica creates 294% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
2.86
Sutjeska
0.75

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
0.29
Sutjeska
1.25

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
92%
Buducnost Podgorica or Sutjeska
82%
Draw or Sutjeska
27%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
48%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
87%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
61%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
33%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
41%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
10%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
90%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.86 + Sutjeska defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sutjeska attack 0.75 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
73%
level
18%
Sutjeska scores more
8%

Buducnost Podgorica at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Buducnost Podgorica 3–0 Sutjeska

Buducnost Podgorica beat Sutjeska 3-0 in Cup on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.