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Buducnost Podgorica vs Struga — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Struga
Struga
8/1/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica50%
×Draw23%
Struga27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Struga
1.28

Buducnost Podgorica creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.67
Struga
1.40

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.17
Struga
2.00

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Struga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
73%
Buducnost Podgorica or Struga
77%
Draw or Struga
50%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
28%
Struga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
84%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
54%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
28%
Struga 1+ goals
72%
Struga 2+ goals
37%
Struga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
65%
Struga (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Struga away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.67 + Struga defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Struga attack 1.40 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
50%
level
23%
Struga scores more
27%

Buducnost Podgorica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buducnost Podgorica vs Struga

Struga beat Buducnost Podgorica 4-3 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.