Buducnost Podgorica 4–2 Rudar Velenje

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Rudar Velenje

11/29/2020

First League · Round 15Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica60%

×Draw22%

Rudar Velenje18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchRudar Velenje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.90

Buducnost Podgorica

1.85

Rudar Velenje

0.90

Buducnost Podgorica creates 106% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 90 away

1.95

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Rudar Velenje

0.86

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.93

Rudar Velenje

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Rudar Velenje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

82%

Buducnost Podgorica or Rudar Velenje

78%

Draw or Rudar Velenje

40%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

35%

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

84%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

55%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

28%

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

59%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

23%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

77%

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

60%

level

22%

Rudar Velenje scores more

18%

Buducnost Podgorica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff