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Buducnost Podgorica vs Rudar Velenje — Cup 2020

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgoricaadvanced
FT
3 – 1
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
10/21/2020CupCup · Round of 16Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica73%
×Draw16%
Rudar Velenje10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
2.43
Rudar Velenje
0.79

Buducnost Podgorica creates 208% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
2.86
Rudar Velenje
1.29

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
0.29
Rudar Velenje
2.00

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
90%
Buducnost Podgorica or Rudar Velenje
84%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
27%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
50%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
91%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
69%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
43%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
55%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
19%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
88%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.86 + Rudar Velenje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.43

Rudar Velenje attack 1.29 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
73%
level
16%
Rudar Velenje scores more
10%

Buducnost Podgorica at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Rudar Velenje

Buducnost Podgorica beat Rudar Velenje 3-1 in Cup on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Berane.