Buducnost Podgorica 2–1 Radnicki 1923

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

2 – 1

Radnicki 1923

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Michel Platini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica69%

×Draw17%

Radnicki 192314%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchRadnicki 1923

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.08

Buducnost Podgorica

2.58

Radnicki 1923

1.08

Buducnost Podgorica creates 139% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

3.00

Radnicki 1923

0.83

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.33

Radnicki 1923

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Radnicki 1923 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

86%

Buducnost Podgorica or Radnicki 1923

83%

Draw or Radnicki 1923

31%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

47%

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

92%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

72%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

47%

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

66%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

29%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

83%

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 3.00 + Radnicki 1923 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.83 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

69%

level

17%

Radnicki 1923 scores more

14%

Buducnost Podgorica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff