Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Petrovac: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Petrovac

12/7/2024

First League · Round 19Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica52%

×Draw24%

Petrovac23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchPetrovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.02

Buducnost Podgorica

1.66

Petrovac

1.02

Buducnost Podgorica creates 63% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 125 away

1.95

creates per match

1.11

0.93

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Petrovac

1.11

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.93

Petrovac

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Petrovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Petrovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

77%

Buducnost Podgorica or Petrovac

76%

Draw or Petrovac

48%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

28%

Petrovac wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

81%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

49%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

23%

Petrovac 1+ goals

64%

Petrovac 2+ goals

27%

Petrovac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

69%

Petrovac (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Petrovac away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Petrovac defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Petrovac attack 1.11 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

52%

level

24%

Petrovac scores more

23%

Buducnost Podgorica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff