Buducnost Podgorica vs Mladost Lucani

Buducnost Podgorica

CANC

12:00

Mladost Lucani

7/11/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica45%

×Draw22%

Mladost Lucani34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.67

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Mladost Lucani

1.67

Buducnost Podgorica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

3.00

Mladost Lucani

2.00

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.33

Mladost Lucani

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

66%

Buducnost Podgorica or Mladost Lucani

78%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

55%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

25%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

86%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

58%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

31%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

81%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

50%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

57%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 3.00 + Mladost Lucani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

Mladost Lucani attack 2.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

45%

level

22%

Mladost Lucani scores more

34%

Buducnost Podgorica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff