Buducnost Podgorica 1–3 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ludogorets

I. Ćuković 31'

Cauly 90+3'

M. Tchibota 25'

Higinio Marín 12'

8/19/2020

UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica22%

×Draw22%

Ludogorets56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.97

Buducnost Podgorica

1.15

Ludogorets

1.97

Ludogorets creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

3.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.00

Ludogorets

0.93

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

3.00

Ludogorets

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

44%

Buducnost Podgorica or Ludogorets

78%

Draw or Ludogorets

78%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

8%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

68%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

32%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

11%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

86%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

58%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

28%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.00 + Ludogorets defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ludogorets attack 0.93 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

22%

level

22%

Ludogorets scores more

56%

Ludogorets at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

12'

25'

31'

56'

61'

65'

65'

D. Yankov← M. Tchibota

68'

Igor Ivanović

69'

Stéphane Badji

75'

M. Đuričković← V. Terzić

76'

A. Vujačić← I. Bojović

76'

C. Keșerü← Higinio Marín

79'

Bernard Tekpetey

82'

D. Zarubica← M. Raičković

85'

Jorginho← B. Tekpetey

90+3'

Cauly

Buducnost4-3-3

Ludogorets4-2-3-1

37

▼

Tekpetey

9

⚽

▼

Marín

7

Santana

95

⚽

Cauly

25

Badji

13

⚽

▼

3

4

21

30

33

1

23

26

⚽

8

33

4

29

▼

Terzić

19

▼

Raičković

77

▼

Bojović

45

Moraitis

10

Ivanović

Manager: M. Milinković

75'▲M. Đuričković←▼V. Terzić

76'▲A. Vujačić←▼I. Bojović

82'▲D. Zarubica←▼M. Raičković

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

22Đuričković9Vujačić99Zarubica5Babić14Mijović31Pavličić11Vukotić

Manager: P. Vrba

65'▲D. Yankov←▼M. Tchibota

76'▲C. Keșerü←▼Higinio Marín

85'▲Jorginho←▼B. Tekpetey

Ludogorets substitutes

64Yankov28Keșerü17Jorginho22Ikoko27Stoyanov12Andrianantenaina18Dyakov

Match Recap: Buducnost Podgorica vs Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Buducnost Podgorica 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on August 19, 2020.

Goals: Higinio Marín (12'), M. Tchibota (25'), I. Ćuković (31'), Cauly (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.

Buducnost Podgorica vs Ludogorets — UEFA Champions League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Buducnost Podgorica vs Ludogorets