Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Kom: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kom

I. Ivanović 85'

P. Grbić 50'

M. Perović 10'

V. Orlandić 70'

8/14/2019

First League · Round 3Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica59%

×Draw22%

Kom19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchKom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.97

Buducnost Podgorica

1.89

Kom

0.97

Buducnost Podgorica creates 95% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 17 away

1.95

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Kom

1.00

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.93

Kom

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Kom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

81%

Buducnost Podgorica or Kom

78%

Draw or Kom

41%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

34%

Kom wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

85%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

56%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

29%

Kom 1+ goals

62%

Kom 2+ goals

25%

Kom 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

76%

Kom (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Kom away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Kom defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kom attack 1.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

59%

level

22%

Kom scores more

19%

Buducnost Podgorica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Perović

46'

L. Mirković← M. Raičković

50'

P. Grbić

55'

D. Stoiljković← P. Grbić

55'

A. Sentoku← B. Golubović

62'

I. Ivanović← D. Stoiljković

66'

M. Račić← S. Gardašević

70'

V. Orlandić

73'

L. Mirkovic

79'

S. Gazivoda← G. Vujović

85'

I. Ivanović

Buducnost

Kom

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: B. Brnović

46'▲L. Mirković←▼M. Raičković

55'▲D. Stoiljković←▼P. Grbić

62'▲I. Ivanović←▼D. Stoiljković

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

MirkovićStoiljkovićIvanović

Manager: V. Trenevski

55'▲A. Sentoku←▼B. Golubović

66'▲M. Račić←▼S. Gardašević

79'▲S. Gazivoda←▼G. Vujović

Kom substitutes

SentokuRačićGazivoda

First League: Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Kom

Buducnost Podgorica beat Kom 3-1 in First League on August 14, 2019.

Goals: M. Perović (10'), P. Grbić (50'), V. Orlandić (70'), I. Ivanović (85').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.

Buducnost Podgorica vs Kom — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Buducnost Podgorica 3–1 Kom