Buducnost Podgorica 1–0 Iskra: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iskra

D. Zarubica 90'

9/30/2020

First League · Round 7Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica57%

×Draw24%

Iskra19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchIskra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.89

Buducnost Podgorica

1.71

Iskra

0.89

Buducnost Podgorica creates 92% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 70 away

1.95

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Iskra

0.84

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.93

Iskra

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Iskra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

81%

Buducnost Podgorica or Iskra

76%

Draw or Iskra

43%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

31%

Iskra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

82%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

51%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

24%

Iskra 1+ goals

59%

Iskra 2+ goals

22%

Iskra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

74%

Iskra (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Iskra away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.46 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Iskra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Iskra attack 0.84 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

57%

level

24%

Iskra scores more

19%

Buducnost Podgorica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

V. Janketić← L. Mirković

24'

K. Kato

26'

B. Boričić← V. Orlandić

29'

L. Malesevic

34'

M. Drincic

45+3'

A. Adzovic

49'

I. Bojovic

71'

D. Zarubica← V. Janketić

71'

Z. Petrović← A. Krnić

71'

M. Račić← P. Tadić

81'

I. Sahman

83'

L. Mijović← D. Božović

83'

A. Vujačić← P. Moraitis

89'

B. Mandić← B. Milić

90'

D. Zarubica

Buducnost

Iskra

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Milinković

13'▲V. Janketić←▼L. Mirković

71'▲D. Zarubica←▼V. Janketić

83'▲L. Mijović←▼D. Božović

83'▲A. Vujačić←▼P. Moraitis

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

JanketićZarubicaMijovićVujačić

Manager: A. Nedović

26'▲B. Boričić←▼V. Orlandić

71'▲Z. Petrović←▼A. Krnić

71'▲M. Račić←▼P. Tadić

89'▲B. Mandić←▼B. Milić

Iskra substitutes

BoričićPetrovićRačićMandić