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Buducnost Podgorica vs HJK Helsinki — UEFA Champions League 2018

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
7/13/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying RoundStadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica24%
×Draw21%
HJK Helsinki55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
1.35
HJK Helsinki
2.15

HJK Helsinki creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
HJK Helsinki
1.29

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
3.00
HJK Helsinki
1.71

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
45%
Buducnost Podgorica or HJK Helsinki
79%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
76%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
10%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
74%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
39%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
15%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
88%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
63%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
30%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.00 + HJK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

HJK Helsinki attack 1.29 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
24%
level
21%
HJK Helsinki scores more
55%

HJK Helsinki at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Buducnost Podgorica 0–4 HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat Buducnost Podgorica 4-0 in UEFA Champions League on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.