Buducnost Podgorica 1–0 Grbalj: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Grbalj

P. Grbić 19'

5/30/2020

First League · Round 24Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica62%

×Draw21%

Grbalj16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchGrbalj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.89

Buducnost Podgorica

1.96

Grbalj

0.89

Buducnost Podgorica creates 120% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 18 away

1.97

creates per match

0.83

0.94

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.97

Grbalj

0.83

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.94

Grbalj

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Grbalj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Grbalj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

84%

Buducnost Podgorica or Grbalj

79%

Draw or Grbalj

38%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

38%

Grbalj wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

86%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

58%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

31%

Grbalj 1+ goals

59%

Grbalj 2+ goals

22%

Grbalj 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

79%

Grbalj (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

Grbalj away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.97 + Grbalj defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.96

Grbalj attack 0.83 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

62%

level

21%

Grbalj scores more

16%

Buducnost Podgorica at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

P. Pesukic

19'

P. Grbić

25'

M. Zečević← D. Kotorac

30'

M. Vucic

32'

V. Kordic

68'

M. Burzanović← V. Kordić

68'

H. Denkovski← E. Kovalenko

71'

A. Vujačić← P. Moraitis

77'

M. Djukanovic

78'

D. Stoiljković← P. Grbić

81'

D. Račić← M. Merdović

81'

Đ. Vukčević← D. Perović

90+2'

V. Terzić← D. Božović

90+2'

P. Vukčević← I. Ivanović

Buducnost

Grbalj

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Milinković

71'▲A. Vujačić←▼P. Moraitis

78'▲D. Stoiljković←▼P. Grbić

90+2'▲V. Terzić←▼D. Božović

90+2'▲P. Vukčević←▼I. Ivanović

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

VujačićStoiljkovićTerzićVukčević

Manager: M. Vidojević

25'▲M. Zečević←▼D. Kotorac

68'▲M. Burzanović←▼V. Kordić

68'▲H. Denkovski←▼E. Kovalenko

81'▲D. Račić←▼M. Merdović

81'▲Đ. Vukčević←▼D. Perović

Grbalj substitutes

ZečevićBurzanovićDenkovskiRačićVukčević

First League: Buducnost Podgorica 1–0 Grbalj

Buducnost Podgorica beat Grbalj 1-0 in First League on May 30, 2020.

Goals: P. Grbić (19').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.

Buducnost Podgorica vs Grbalj — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Buducnost Podgorica 1–0 Grbalj