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Budućnost Pilica vs Zvijezda 09 — 1st League - RS 2019

Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
4/2/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica21%
×Draw23%
Zvijezda 0957%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Pilica
1.04
Zvijezda 09
1.87

Zvijezda 09 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica
0.87
Zvijezda 09
1.27

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica
2.47
Zvijezda 09
1.22

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par
Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Zvijezda 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw
43%
Budućnost Pilica or Zvijezda 09
77%
Draw or Zvijezda 09
79%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
8%
Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
65%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
28%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
9%
Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
85%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
56%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
27%
Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.27 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more
21%
level
23%
Zvijezda 09 scores more
57%

Zvijezda 09 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zvijezda 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Budućnost Pilica 1–5 Zvijezda 09

Zvijezda 09 beat Budućnost Pilica 5-1 in 1st League - RS on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica in Donja Pilica.