Budućnost Pilica 0–2 Sutjeska Foča: Result & Stats

Budućnost Pilica

FT

0 – 2

Sutjeska Foča

10/9/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 9Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica33%

×Draw23%

Sutjeska Foča43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PilicaExpected goals in this matchSutjeska Foča

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.70

Budućnost Pilica

1.46

Sutjeska Foča

1.70

Sutjeska Foča creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

0.87

creates per match

0.93

2.47

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica

0.87

Sutjeska Foča

0.93

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica

2.47

Sutjeska Foča

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Sutjeska Foča →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw

57%

Budućnost Pilica or Sutjeska Foča

77%

Draw or Sutjeska Foča

67%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

15%

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

77%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

43%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

18%

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals

82%

Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals

51%

Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

43%

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Sutjeska Foča away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.04 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Sutjeska Foča defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sutjeska Foča attack 0.93 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more

33%

level

23%

Sutjeska Foča scores more

43%

Sutjeska Foča at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sutjeska Foča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff