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Budućnost Pilica vs Sloboda Novi Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
FT
1 – 4
Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
9/11/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 5Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica23%
×Draw23%
Sloboda Novi Grad53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Pilica
1.10
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.78

Sloboda Novi Grad creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica
0.87
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica
2.47
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Sloboda Novi Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw
47%
Budućnost Pilica or Sloboda Novi Grad
77%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Grad
77%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
9%
Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
67%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
30%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
10%
Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
83%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
53%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
31%
Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Sloboda Novi Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.09 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more
23%
level
23%
Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
53%

Sloboda Novi Grad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Budućnost Pilica 1–4 Sloboda Novi Grad

Sloboda Novi Grad beat Budućnost Pilica 4-1 in 1st League - RS on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica in Donja Pilica.