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Budućnost Pilica vs Omarska — 1st League - RS 2019

Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
FT
0 – 2
Omarska
Omarska
9/25/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 7Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica41%
×Draw23%
Omarska36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Pilica
1.78
Omarska
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica
0.87
Omarska
0.86

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica
2.47
Omarska
2.68

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par
Omarska+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Omarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw
64%
Budućnost Pilica or Omarska
77%
Draw or Omarska
59%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
21%
Omarska wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
83%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
53%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
26%
Omarska 1+ goals
81%
Omarska 2+ goals
50%
Omarska 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
53%
Omarska (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Omarska away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.68 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Omarska defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.78

Omarska attack 0.86 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more
41%
level
23%
Omarska scores more
36%

Budućnost Pilica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Budućnost Pilica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Pilica vs Omarska

Omarska beat Budućnost Pilica 2-0 in 1st League - RS on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica in Donja Pilica.