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Budučnost Krušik vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
10/21/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 10Park Pećina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budučnost Krušik55%
×Draw25%
Vrelo Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budučnost Krušik
1.60
Vrelo Sport
0.84

Budučnost Krušik creates 90% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Budučnost Krušik
1.47
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Budučnost Krušik
0.76
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budučnost Krušik ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Budučnost Krušik or draw
80%
Budučnost Krušik or Vrelo Sport
75%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
45%

Winning margin

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
30%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
80%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
47%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
22%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
57%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
21%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
74%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budučnost Krušik at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budučnost Krušik attack 1.47 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Budučnost Krušik defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Budučnost Krušik scores more
55%
level
25%
Vrelo Sport scores more
20%

Budučnost Krušik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Budučnost Krušik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Budučnost Krušik 0–0 Vrelo Sport

Budučnost Krušik and Vrelo Sport drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Park Pećina in Valjevo.