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Budučnost Krušik vs Šumadija Aranđelovac — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
FT
6 – 0
Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
4/10/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 24Park Pećina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Budučnost Krušik73%
×Draw18%
Šumadija Aranđelovac10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budučnost Krušik
2.18
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.64

Budučnost Krušik creates 241% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Budučnost Krušik
1.41
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.62

allows per match

Budučnost Krušik
0.65
Šumadija Aranđelovac
2.95

finishing

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par
Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budučnost Krušik ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Budučnost Krušik or draw
90%
Budučnost Krušik or Šumadija Aranđelovac
82%
Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac
27%

Winning margin

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
48%
Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
89%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
64%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
37%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
47%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
14%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
88%
Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budučnost Krušik at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budučnost Krušik attack 1.41 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.18

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.62 + Budučnost Krušik defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Budučnost Krušik scores more
73%
level
18%
Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
10%

Budučnost Krušik at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Budučnost Krušik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budučnost Krušik vs Šumadija Aranđelovac

Budučnost Krušik beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 6-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Park Pećina in Valjevo.