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Budučnost Krušik vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
FT
0 – 0
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
11/18/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 14Park Pećina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Budučnost Krušik62%
×Draw23%
Mihajlovac14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budučnost Krušik
1.72
Mihajlovac
0.68

Budučnost Krušik creates 153% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

creates per match

Budučnost Krušik
1.47
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Budučnost Krušik
0.76
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budučnost Krušik ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Budučnost Krušik or draw
86%
Budučnost Krušik or Mihajlovac
77%
Draw or Mihajlovac
38%

Winning margin

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
36%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
82%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
51%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
25%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
49%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
15%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
81%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budučnost Krušik at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budučnost Krušik attack 1.47 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Budučnost Krušik defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Budučnost Krušik scores more
62%
level
23%
Mihajlovac scores more
14%

Budučnost Krušik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Budučnost Krušik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Budučnost Krušik 0–0 Mihajlovac

Budučnost Krušik and Mihajlovac drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Park Pećina in Valjevo.