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Buducnost Dobanovci vs Zemun — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Zemun
Zemun
10/1/2022Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 8Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci33%
×Draw26%
Zemun41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.23
Zemun
1.40

Zemun creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.47
Zemun
1.67

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.12
Zemun
0.98

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Zemun+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
59%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Zemun
74%
Draw or Zemun
67%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
14%
Zemun wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
71%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
35%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
13%
Zemun 1+ goals
75%
Zemun 2+ goals
41%
Zemun 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
45%
Zemun (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

Zemun away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.47 + Zemun defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zemun attack 1.67 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
33%
level
26%
Zemun scores more
41%

Zemun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buducnost Dobanovci vs Zemun

Zemun beat Buducnost Dobanovci 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost in Dobanovci.