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Buducnost Dobanovci vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
2 – 3
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
3/30/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 20Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci47%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.42
Sindjelic Beograd
0.99

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 43% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 49 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.47
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.12
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
74%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
53%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
23%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
76%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
41%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
17%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
63%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
26%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
64%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.47 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
47%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
26%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Buducnost Dobanovci 2–3 Sindjelic Beograd

Sindjelic Beograd beat Buducnost Dobanovci 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost in Dobanovci.