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Buducnost Dobanovci vs Radnički Obrenovac — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
3/21/2026Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci41%
×Draw26%
Radnički Obrenovac33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.44
Radnički Obrenovac
1.27

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 98 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.47
Radnički Obrenovac
1.43

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.12
Radnički Obrenovac
1.41

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Radnički Obrenovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
67%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Radnički Obrenovac
74%
Draw or Radnički Obrenovac
59%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
20%
Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
76%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
42%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
18%
Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
72%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
36%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
55%
Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

Radnički Obrenovac away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.47 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.43 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
41%
level
26%
Radnički Obrenovac scores more
33%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Buducnost Dobanovci 3–3 Radnički Obrenovac

Buducnost Dobanovci and Radnički Obrenovac drew 3-3 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 21, 2026.