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Buducnost Dobanovci vs Prva Iskra — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
1 – 2
Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
11/4/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 13Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci44%
×Draw26%
Prva Iskra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.46
Prva Iskra
1.18

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 24% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 71 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.47
Prva Iskra
1.23

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.12
Prva Iskra
1.44

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Prva Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Prva Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
69%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Prva Iskra
74%
Draw or Prva Iskra
56%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
21%
Prva Iskra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
77%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
43%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
18%
Prva Iskra 1+ goals
69%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
33%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
59%
Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

Prva Iskra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.47 + Prva Iskra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Prva Iskra attack 1.23 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
44%
level
26%
Prva Iskra scores more
31%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buducnost Dobanovci vs Prva Iskra

Prva Iskra beat Buducnost Dobanovci 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost in Dobanovci.