Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Buducnost Dobanovci vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
2/26/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 22Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci34%
×Draw32%
Mladost Novi Sad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
0.95
Mladost Novi Sad
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.13
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
0.90
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
66%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Mladost Novi Sad
68%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
66%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
13%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
61%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
25%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
7%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
61%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
24%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
50%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.13 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
34%
level
32%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
34%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buducnost Dobanovci vs Mladost Novi Sad

Buducnost Dobanovci and Mladost Novi Sad drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost in Dobanovci.