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Buducnost Dobanovci vs Bezanija — Prva Liga 2018

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
3 – 0
Bezanija
Bezanija
2/27/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 23Stadion FK Budućnost (Dobanovci)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci46%
×Draw28%
Bezanija26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.35
Bezanija
0.95

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 42% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.13
Bezanija
1.00

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
0.90
Bezanija
1.58

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Bezanija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
74%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Bezanija
72%
Draw or Bezanija
54%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
22%
Bezanija wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
74%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
39%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
15%
Bezanija 1+ goals
61%
Bezanija 2+ goals
25%
Bezanija 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
64%
Bezanija (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.13 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bezanija attack 1.00 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
46%
level
28%
Bezanija scores more
26%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Buducnost Dobanovci 3–0 Bezanija

Buducnost Dobanovci beat Bezanija 3-0 in Prva Liga on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost (Dobanovci).