Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Buducnost Dobanovci vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Backa
Backa
4/27/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 3Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci45%
×Draw30%
Backa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.21
Backa
0.82

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 48% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 34 away

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
1.13
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci
0.90
Backa
1.29

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw
75%
Buducnost Dobanovci or Backa
70%
Draw or Backa
55%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
20%
Backa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
70%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
34%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
12%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
20%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
64%
Backa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.13 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Backa attack 0.74 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
45%
level
30%
Backa scores more
25%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Buducnost Dobanovci 4–1 Backa

Buducnost Dobanovci beat Backa 4-1 in Prva Liga on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Budućnost in Dobanovci.