Budućnost Banovići 1–1 Olimpik Sarajevo

Budućnost Banovići

FT

1 – 1

Olimpik Sarajevo

10/5/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Budućnost Banovići41%

×Draw26%

Olimpik Sarajevo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost BanovićiExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.21

Budućnost Banovići

1.40

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.21

Budućnost Banovići creates 16% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 8 away

1.68

creates per match

1.50

0.92

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići

1.68

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.50

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići

0.92

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw

68%

Budućnost Banovići or Olimpik Sarajevo

74%

Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo

59%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+

19%

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals

75%

Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals

41%

Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals

17%

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

70%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

34%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)

56%

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.50 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more

41%

level

26%

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

32%

Budućnost Banovići at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff